Oil and Interest Rates

In previous posts I’ve ranted that interest rates would be going up as soon as the U.S. election is over. Hoping  we would get one more rally in the stock market before that happens now seems to be very unlikely. The indexes are plunging on a daily basis. Television pundits have an endless supply of excuses why the markets are tanking. Here’s my take.

I referred to the book “The Only Three Questions That Count” by Ken Fisher. In this book he explains how to data mine using the correlation coefficient function on an excel spread sheet. What it does is tell you if one price increase has any relationship to another price increase. In this case it’s oil and interest rates.

On my spread sheet I list oil prices from 1971 to 2008 during the month of July. Next to it I listed the prime rate for the same years. Then I made a column showing election years and the year after the election marking with an o and x respectively.

As stated in the book a number closer to 1 indicates a positive correlation and to -1 a negative one. So here’s what happens.

• From 1971 to 2008 we get .234  which means very little in itself.
• Next I matched up 1971 oil and 1972 rates and went down the whole list and get .338 a lagging indicator.
• Then I do the entries marked X , the year after the election for a number of .655 
• Lastly I did a small sampling of when oil doubled with entries marked X and got a number of .915

So it’s easy to see that the year after the election is  important as far as interest rates  in relation to oil prices, especially when it doubles. I would think that this data is more reflective of what’s happening  than any views by the TV gurus. They know  this but aren’t telling you. I’m putting the prime at 14% and oil at $90 within two years. It’s going to be ugly.

In summation the sheiks get their money now, the banks will get their money later.

Obama Voters Will Get Their Change

Climate Change Coolers

Use your climate change rebates ( that’s you in British Columbia) to purchase these two beverages. Both from Smirnoff, these will suit the mood if the weather comes in mild or super humid.

The Classic Caesar outdoes their  competitors  version.  Is it any wonder, who makes the vodka? This drink is perfect when it’s too early in the day for a beer or not hot enough to fully enjoy your best brew.

The Smirnoff Ice is best enjoyed on the most humid of days when a beer just won’t do. It hits the spot big time when the humidex  closes in on the number of years since the Toronto Maple Leafs won the Stanley Cup.

 Too hot for ice hockey, never too hot for Smirnoff Ice. One word to sum up these two beverages  “Smashing”.

Government Retraining Programs - Potty

Is This How You Feel at the Gas Pump ?

Municipal Hillbillies - Aren’t You Special

It took just over a month from receiving that letter for the planning department to come up with a new angle that would allow for the conversion of a single family home to a 17 unit seniors complex.  So that letter must have had an effect. It is a rezoning change from R1A to R1A - with a Special Provision.

We were told that it is  only to be used for the  purpose of a retirement home or   it reverts back to the R1A status. I’m not so sure that  would work.  Opening that door could open up a big can of worms.

Again I refered to the OMB appeals data base to get an idea on this type of zone. It was the developers that were battling to get their lands rezoned. From special provision  this to special provision that.

It is unrealistic to think that all property will remain as is. There will be expansion and infilling. But what’s to stop some developer from putting up an unsightly building next to your dream home? There are few people who know what is acceptable in this area. Unfortunately the lay person does not fall into this elite group.

 

 

Damage to property has been the norm here. With the church built, pool damage has  been asserted to the adjacent property. Cutting a tree down on this property resulted in fence damage. I was told the person doing the cutting had expertise in fence building not tree cutting.

I’m wondering if the contractor they get to build this  addition is in the pool damage business? For it is likely to  damage  mine.

Steely Dan at Casino Rama

Don’t need a bakers dozen, twelve is plenty. It was  Plenty O’ Cool  at Casino Rama Friday night. A small venue, obviously sold out. The guy digging out the  foundation around my house  also dug the band  as he asked if I could see about tickets for him. A cancellation was his only hope. I guess he didn’t Think Fast enough? Neither did I waiting for the second day to get my tickets put me, in the second to last row from the back. This was  my first for these guys hopefully not my last.

They started on time, 9 o’clock with 2 instrumentals before Donald Fagen and Walter Becker appeared, a sort of warm up  I suppose for the horn section. They  then  kicked it off with The Royal Scam, I Got the News followed. I have to admit I wasn’t on to their every tune but what I wasn’t familiar with was very good.The back up singers were dynamite, the drummer I would say was most exuberant, the alto sax was weak on one   song, I can’t remember which one and Deacon Blues was not in the mix, shit, my favourite.

Don Fagen’s voice started to wane noticeable while doing PEG. He ended the show a couple of songs later, the first to walk off stage, the signal I guess? They encored with Kid Charlemagne, not before Don apologized for his voice, hell, almost 2 hours who’s voice would last that long?

It was a friend of mine who turned me on to Steely Dan way back. I gave him a call the next day to say I was going to give him  credit for the referral. We talked for quite some time reminiscing . He is on his way to a jazz concert in Montreal . That’s where the band was earlier I believe .

 Regardless.Thank You Turk.

 

 

Oscillator Bottom

  Is it any wonder why Celgene broke out of a cup with handle base on monster volume today. Do you think that there is any correlation between the break out and the fact that the oscillator hit it’s previous low? That’s what happens with top stocks, the timing is critical and I missed it as I was working days. SHIT.

 

 

Happy Canada Day

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Heatseeker - No Problem

Sometimes the result of a race is right under your nose. In bold caps that is. Not saying it will happen here but it’s worth a shot. With Heatseeker out of the Hollywood Gold Cup there are three horses than beat or ran within 3 lengths of him within the past year. Tiago who scored a win, Go Between and Racketeer.

Taking a yellow highlighter I mark these situations so it stands out in the Racing Form. Big Booster beat Heatseeker last May but that is outside of my scope of assessment. Fifty three weeks is enough of a time frame to get a handle on the race. Hey, there’s nothing wrong with getting a cold super Tiago/ Go Between/Racketeer/Big Booster since it’s staring you in the face. But for the most part I will overlook Big Booster in any major bet here.

Perfect Drift is scary here with that mile work, but is one outing enough? What are the trainers plans?  Is this a prep for something else? Tiago is the one here in my mind. Horses with a little more recency will tend to sway me.

 This is a rating system that worked in the Stephen Foster that got me a cold super four times. It’s one of those angles which you add the workout to the selected speed figure. Just for a laugh this is how it goes in this race.

Tiago 124

Racketeer 123

Perfect Drift 121

Go Between 120

Student Council 117

Mast Track 112

                                                           Have a Good Day All.